Chronic hepatitis B treatment market expected to reach $3.2 billion in 2034 across 7MM

The chronic hepatitis B (CHB) therapeutics sector in the seven major markets (7MM)comprising the US, five European countries, and Japanis projected to expand from $1.5 billion in 2024 to $3.2 billion by 2034, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.9%.

The United States is anticipated to remain the largest market, with 2024 sales forecasted at $710.11 million, accounting for 47.5% of the total 7MM market. Japan follows as the second-largest market, valued at $323.83 million in 2024, or 21.7% of the 7MM total.

Analysis from GlobalData in the report 'Chronic Hepatitis B Therapeutics: Seven-Market Drug Forecast and Market Analysis' indicates that growth will be primarily fueled by the introduction of functional cures for CHB. Currently, nucleos(t)ide analoguesincluding entecavir, Vemlidy (tenofovir alafenamide), and tenofovir disoproxil fumaratedominate the market. However, none of the late-stage CHB pipeline drugs are nucleos(t)ide analogues, signaling a shift toward novel therapies.

Five key late-stage pipeline products are expected to reach the market by 2034: GSKs TLR8 agonist bepirovirsen; Gilead Sciences TLR8 agonist selgantolimod; GSKs siRNA combination daplusiran plus tomligisiran; Aligos Therapeutics capsid protein inhibitor ALG-000184; and Arbutus Biopharmas HBV surface antigen inhibitor imdusiran.

While nucleos(t)ide analogues effectively suppress viral replication, their requirement for long-term daily administration can reduce patient adherence and increase the risk of prolonged side effects. The emerging pipeline aims to meet the unmet need for a functional cure. The five late-stage therapies are designed to act either as standalone treatments or in combination with existing drugs to achieve this goal. Functional cure drugs are expected to carry higher prices than current CHB medications, contributing significantly to market expansion. By 2034, over 65% of CHB market revenue is projected to stem from these novel therapies.

All 7MM countries are forecasted to see growth during the period, with Spain, the US, and France projected to experience the largest increases. Nonetheless, market growth may be tempered by generic competition as drugs like Vemlidy lose patent protection and by anticipated declines in diagnosed CHB cases. Additionally, established long-term antivirals and high costs may restrict adoption of the new branded therapies.

Despite these challenges, opportunities exist for developers to overcome clinical and commercial obstacles and transform the CHB treatment landscape.

Author: Connor Blake