Experts warn of imminent danger to coastal communities: 'The situation is complicated'

A recent study in Coastal Futures highlights the possibility that some of the most severe flooding events globally could become significantly more frequent. The research was carried out by scientists from the University of Plymouth in the UK and the Deltares Institute in the Netherlands, focusing on the major floods that struck 20 atoll islands in the Maldives in July 2022.

The investigation revealed that the flooding occurred due to a combination of a distant Indian Ocean swell and exceptionally high tides. According to the research team's models, the July 2022 floods were historically rare, occurring roughly once every 25 years. However, the authors caution that such events could happen much more often in the near future.

Modeling suggests that by 2050, floods that previously had a 25-year return period could occur every few years as sea levels rise. This increase poses a significant threat to the low-lying atoll islands of South Asia and reflects a broader global trend of worsening coastal flooding driven by climate change and melting ice sheets.

The 2022 floods caused extensive damage, destroying over 100 homes, displacing 40 families, and resulting in at least one death. Infrastructure, including bridges and sewage systems, was heavily impacted, and agricultural losses were reported. Repeated flooding could lead to cumulative devastation that may be irreversible in some locations.

Researchers are urging Maldivian authorities to take immediate action to mitigate future flood risks. Robert McCall from Deltares emphasized that understanding the timing, location, and scale of potential flooding allows governments to plan effective protection and adaptation measures. These solutions can include flood defenses, mitigation strategies, and infrastructure improvements to better manage the risk.

Lead author Gerd Masselink noted that flooding also has the potential to deposit coral sand and rubble on islands, which can raise their elevation and provide some natural resilience. Nonetheless, he stressed that the situation remains complex, requiring ongoing study to safeguard communities and infrastructure.

In addition to local measures, broader efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and transition to cleaner energy sources are critical to slowing sea-level rise and preventing increasingly frequent coastal disasters.

Author: Benjamin Carter