The Rise of Streaming Services Leads to Decline of Premium Cable, Raising Doubts About HBO's Future in the Era of Netflix

One of the most pressing questions surrounding Netflix's potential acquisition of Warner Bros. is: What will happen to HBO Max? Will subscribers continue to keep both services, or will HBO Max eventually merge with Netflix? While Netflix has indicated that HBO Max will remain separate for now, it has not ruled out the possibility that it may eventually become part of Netflix. The idea of HBO becoming another Netflix tile, similar to how Hulu is slowly being absorbed into Disney+, seems increasingly likely.

But one question that remains unaddressed is: What happens to HBOs traditional linear service? Launched in 1972, HBO was instrumental in the rise of cable television and revolutionized prestige television with shows like "The Sopranos." Even if the HBO brand survives the merger, the concept of HBO as an independent entity may soon be gone. This would mark the final death knell for "premium cable" as weve known it.

Paramount has already dealt a heavy blow to the once-thriving Showtime brand by shutting down its standalone app and renaming its remaining linear channel to "Paramount+ With Showtime." Showtime, which first launched in 1976, has now largely faded from relevance, with shows like the Dexter spinoffs and Yellowjackets now branded as Paramount+ originals. While Showtime may linger in name, its essentially dead.

FX, although not officially a premium cable network since it's available on basic cable, once found success by emulating HBO's high-quality programming model. Like HBO, FX transformed television and attracted creators looking for a platform for their high-end shows. However, FX now exists mainly as part of Hulus offerings, with the linear channel relegated to broadcasting older movies and reruns. AMC, which once enjoyed a golden age with shows like "Mad Men" and "Breaking Bad," has attempted to shift viewers to its AMC+ streaming service, with mixed results.

Among the remaining smaller premium channels, MGM+ operates as a linear/digital hybrid under Amazon, while Starz is focusing on its digital platform, even as it continues to offer a linear service. Both MGM+ and Starz, however, prefer to be seen as digital-first brands rather than traditional TV channels.

Now, as part of Warner Bros. Discovery, HBO is already pulling back from its linear offerings. Earlier this year, it discontinued several multiplex networks such as HBO Family, ThrillerMax, MovieMax, and OuterMax. These cuts came from a company with a history in cable, so it raises the question: how much patience will Netflix have for HBOs remaining linear services? Netflix has long avoided operating linear TV properties and did not include the linear channels spun off by the Discovery part of Warner Bros. Discovery in its bid for the company. So how long will Netflix tolerate maintaining HBOs linear network? Would Netflix push these subscribers to the digital platform?

Currently, HBO linear subscribers still have access to HBO Max, a promise made when HBO Max first launched in 2020. But would Netflix allow these hybrid customers to continue accessing the service through the linear network? As Netflix looks for cost-saving opportunities following the merger, it may decide that maintaining a traditional linear network is no longer necessary.

It seems that the demise of premium cable was inevitable. In 2024, HBO averaged only 154,000 viewers during primetime, a decline from the previous year and a significant drop from 2017, when the network had 726,000 viewers. This decline in linear viewership mirrors the broader trend of audiences moving to streaming platforms.

Netflix began its own original programming efforts in the early 2010s by emulating HBOs successful model, with shows like House of Cards. It sought to surpass HBO, and over time, Netflix grew so large that it became a massive content machine. While Netflix has surpassed traditional broadcast networks in terms of volume, HBO continues to dominate in quality, offering meticulously curated content. Should Netflix acquire Warner Bros., premium cable networks like HBO may simply become another addition to Netflixs already expansive offerings, alongside brands like WWE and the NFL.

The rivalry between Netflix and HBO has defined much of the TV conversation in recent years, especially in the awards arena. However, if Netflix does acquire HBO, the competition may not be about beating HBO anymoreit could simply be about absorbing it.