A special election in Tennessee causing concern for both parties

The special election on Tuesday to fill the seat vacated by Republican Mark Green in Tennessees staunchly conservative 7th District has taken on national significance. The contest, shaping up to be much tighter than President Donald Trumps 22-point win there in 2024, is being watched as a gauge for Democratic prospects in next years midterms.

Republicans have been concerned about post-Thanksgiving turnout in this off-cycle election, compounded by forecasts of snow in parts of the expansive district stretching from Kentucky to Alabama, including areas of Nashville. Despite these challenges, both parties are leaning toward GOP candidate Matt Van Epps prevailing over Democrat Aftyn Behn. The margin of victory is expected to offer insight into whether Democrats can maintain their recent overperformance.

Republicans see the race as key to suppressing left-leaning enthusiasm before the midterms. Trump has actively supported Van Epps, hosting two virtual rallies and posting on X to mobilize voters. Speaker Mike Johnson also campaigned alongside Van Epps, even connecting Trump to an event via speakerphone. We have to win this seat, Trump told attendees. The whole world is watching Tennessee right now, and they are watching your district.

Democrats are leveraging their own prominent figures. Vice President Kamala Harris made her first post-election appearance for Behn, while Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez held a virtual rally with former Vice President Al Gore. High-profile PACs are funding both campaigns, with Republicans outspending Democrats $3.1 million to $2.3 million, including nearly $1 million from Trump-aligned MAGA Inc. Both parties have deployed volunteers and coordinated fundraising, with DNC Chair Ken Martin campaigning for Behn in Nashville earlier in November.

Behn has faced various attacks from Republicans, such as footage of her being removed from Governor Bill Lees office and past comments critical of country music, but she has largely focused on affordability, the key voter concern this year. Aftyn Behn wants one thing: to lower your costs, reads one of her final campaign ads. In Congress, shell challenge both parties to make life more affordable.

Some Democrats privately doubt Behn can pull off an upset but highlight the intense GOP spending as a strategic win. Theyre all in to hold a seat that should have been safe, said a Democratic strategist on condition of anonymity. Republican groups had to energize their base with culture war appeals to support Van Epps.

Public polling is scarce, but the latest Emerson survey shows a statistical tie between Van Epps and Behn. Republicans remain confident based on internal early voting data suggesting a lead for Van Epps, a typically favorable indicator for the GOP. If Behn narrows the expected margin, Democrats may use it as evidence of momentum across competitive House races. This race was always going to be nationalized, Behn told POLITICO last month. For us, its about nationalizing fundraising and attention as a bellwether for the midterms.

Author: Sophia Brooks