The Cardinals' pitching overhaul persists

Early reports indicated that the St. Louis Cardinals would likely attract attention from rival teams seeking roster upgrades for the next season. Traditionally, the Cardinals are the ones trying to strengthen for a playoff run, but this offseason they have embraced the role of trade initiator.

After a previous offseason of unfulfilled promises, Chaim Bloom demonstrated action over words by trading Sonny Gray to the Red Sox in exchange for two pitchers with contrasting skill sets: a left-hander and a right-hander, one ready for the majors, the other still in A-ball. Both have potential as starters, and one might develop into a top reliever. While projecting prospects remains uncertain, the trade appears favorable for St. Louis considering Gray and $20 million were exchanged.

The right-handed Richard Fitts is expected to compete for a spot in a rotation that includes Matthew Liberatore, Michael McGreevy, Andre Pallante, and Kyle Leahy. The pitching staff faces challenges, but reinforcements are on the way.

Rotation Outlook

The Cardinals starting rotation will likely experience ups and downs, but it will provide insight into the future of these pitchers. Liberatore will aim to build on a strong rookie season, hoping to increase his strikeouts and maintain consistency. McGreevy may emerge as a traditional Cardinals pitcher, relying on a low-90s fastball to generate contact. Pallante struggled last season but is expected to return to the rotation, while Leahy offers intrigue with a dominant breaking ball and a solid fastball, making durability and pitch selection critical. Fitts appears promising for 2025, though evaluations remain cautious until more performance data is available.

Draft and Development Strategy

The Cardinals acknowledged a gap in pitching development, evidenced by their approach at the 2025 draft. Out of 21 selections, 12 were pitchers, all from college, known for high velocity and strong strikeout potential. Even partial success from these prospects would indicate a significant shift in the organizations philosophy, emphasizing aggressive, strikeout-focused pitching.

High-velocity arms often raise concerns about injuries and control, but the Cardinals seem committed to this direction. The majority of these players will take 35 years to evaluate fully, but the intent to change the pitching archetype is clear.

Statistical Context

Analyzing recent history confirms the need for change. Since 2015, St. Louis ranks 9th in ERA and 10th in total fWAR among pitching staffs. However, strikeouts have been an issue, with an 8.04 K/9 rate ranking 24th in MLB and a middling walk rate at 3.22 BB/9. Over the past five years, strikeouts dropped further to 29th, ERA moved to 16th, and fWAR fell to 19th, though walk rates improved slightly. Fastball velocity has also lagged, with the team averaging 93.8 mph, 20th in MLB.

Future Outlook

Despite past struggles, the Cardinals are now emphasizing pitchers capable of generating strikeouts. Their recent trades and draft strategy prioritize pitchers with multiple put-away pitches, aligning with evolving hitting trends where power is valued over contact. Emerging names like Liam Doyle, Tanner Franklin, Quinn Mathews, and potentially Brandon Clarke exemplify this new approach, combining velocity and movement to challenge hitters.

The Cardinals commitment to strikeout-oriented pitching marks a clear shift in strategy, setting the stage for a fundamentally different pitching staff in the coming seasons.

Author: Sophia Brooks