Is Nineteen Eighty-Four here? Orwell lecturer says not quite

Despite rising fears that contemporary society mirrors George Orwells dystopian vision, Harvard professor Steven Pinker asserts that Britain is far from living in an Orwellian nightmare. The renowned Canadian psychologist, who delivered this years Orwell Lecture in London, investigated whether Orwells predictions from the 1940s have materialized in todays world.

Pinker examined aspects such as war, misinformation, production, and democracy, concluding that significant progress has been made in these areas since the Second World War. While its common to see claims that 1984 is here or that Orwell predicted our age, these are exaggerations, he explained. I aimed to compare our world with Orwells imagined 1948, recognizing the improvements weve achieved while remaining aware of threats to freedom, peace, and prosperity.

Orwell, the British novelist, wrote Nineteen Eighty-Four as a cautionary tale at the dawn of the Cold War, a term he himself coined. The novel explores totalitarianism, mass surveillance, and the manipulation of information. Set in the superstate Oceania, the story depicts life under the oppressive rule of The Party and the ever-watchful Big Brother, where citizens thoughts are controlled through Thoughtcrime laws and a restricted language called Newspeak.

Pinker highlighted the differences between Orwells dystopia and todays reality. Orwell imagined a world where science stagnates, technology regresses, and vocabulary shrinks annually due to Newspeak, he said. In contrast, science and technology have flourished, and the English language has continued to expand.

He acknowledged ongoing political dishonesty, citing frequent lies by leaders, but emphasized that deceit in politics has always existed. Orwells depiction of scarcity, influenced by post-war austerity and wartime shortages, contrasts sharply with modern improvements. Per capita wealth in the UK has quadrupled since the 1940s, global per capita income has nearly quintupled, and extreme poverty has fallen from roughly 70% to under 9%, Pinker noted. Obesity has replaced hunger as the main issue, which is a sign of progress.

Regarding war, Orwell envisioned constant conflict and nuclear proliferation. Pinker observed, Major powers have avoided direct wars for over seventy years, and no nuclear weapons have been used since Nagasaki, a scenario that Orwell assumed inevitable.

While acknowledging a slight democratic decline since 2012, marked by the rise of authoritarian leaders, Pinker argued that globally, democracy remains near its historical peak. Human nature tends to focus on negative events, while incremental positive changeslike reduced poverty and war deathsoften go unnoticed, he explained. For that reason, I remain optimistic.

Steven Pinker presented The Orwell Lecture 2025: Nineteen Eighty-Four and Twenty Twenty-Five at Londons Queen Elizabeth Hall, Southbank Centre. His latest book, When Everyone Knows That Everyone Knows: Common Knowledge and the Science of Harmony, Hypocrisy and Outrage, is published by Allen Lane.

Author: Logan Reeves