Do the Chicago Bears Lack Authenticity?

Fans of the Green Bay Packers have often labeled the Chicago Bears impressive 9-3 record as fraudulent. While its tempting to mock a divisional rival, calling the Bears a complete fraud doesnt fully match the facts. They may be fortunate at times, but fraud is too strong a label for several reasons.

Looking at past NFL teams, the 2022 Minnesota Vikings are a clearer example of a fraud. They finished 28th in DVOA, had a -3 point differential, and astonishingly went 9-0 in one-score games, plus 2-0 in eight-point differential games, before losing 31-24 to the Giants in the playoffs. Their 13-4 record vastly overstated their performance, as Pythagorean calculations suggested they should have only won around eight games. Expected wins based on DVOA were just 5.9, demonstrating luck on a remarkable scale.

The Bears share some traits with that Vikings squad. Their point differential is slightly positive at +6, and their 9-3 record is three wins above what a Pythagorean projection would predict. They have pulled off improbable wins, such as defeating the Vikings after Devin Duvernay returned a kickoff 56 yards into field goal range with under a minute remaining. Theyve also faced opponents missing key starters, like the Mason Rudolph-led Steelers or the Joe Flacco-led Bengals. Their 6-1 record in one-score games is another indicator of fortune that cant last indefinitely.

However, there are critical differences. By point differential and EPA, the Bears are essentially average. DVOA ranks them 19th, with 5.8 expected wins, which is not far from their actual record. Unlike the Vikings, they are not secretly terriblethey are a team performing slightly above average. A three-win variance at this stage is noticeable but far from outrageous. NFL teams rarely match exactly their expected records; some fluctuation is normal. For instance, the Chiefs sit at 6-6 with an expected 8-4 record, and the Panthers have been outscored by 50 but hold a 7-6 record instead of the expected 5-8.

Chicago has been impacted by injuries on defense. They rank 25th in defensive DVOA and have allowed the fourth-most points in the NFC, but key players like Kyler Gordon and Jaylon Johnson missed much of the season. Johnson, a top-five corner, recently returned, and linebacker TJ Edwards is expected back soon. As a team regains health, their performance is likely to stabilize rather than collapse.

Calling a team a fraud implies inevitable regression to mediocrity. The Bears may have benefited from early luck, but they are improving and addressing weaknesses. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has shown competence, echoing his success in Detroit, and while Chicago isnt perfect, their system is well-run. Injuries to players like Kyle Monangai and Rome Odunze could affect outcomes, but the core team remains strong.

The remaining schedule will be challenging, and losing streaks are possible, but the Bears appear to be a competitive team with potential upside rather than a team masking major deficiencies. They are close to the Packers in talent and coaching, making divisional matchups competitive. Chicago occupies the middle tier of the NFLnot dominating but far from fraudulent. They are lucky, improving, and capable of making games tough for any opponent.

Author: Ethan Caldwell