NFL Playoff Projection: A Ravens-Steelers matchup may not be classic, but it could still decide a playoff spot

The AFC North is having a down year. In many seasons, this division is one of the strongest in the NFL, and the rivalry between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens is usually a major highlight. This time, however, neither the division nor the rivalry is living up to its usual standard.

Unlike the rest of the league, where every division has at least two teams above the .500 mark, the AFC North has none at least for now. That is guaranteed to change this Sunday, unless the game ends in a tie, when the 66 Ravens face the 66 Steelers. This matchup could play a crucial role in determining which team eventually claims a playoff berth from the division. Even the 48 Cincinnati Bengals are technically still in contention, though their chances are slim.

Baltimore managed to recover from a disastrous 15 start, but last weeks 3214 defeat to Cincinnati showed that significant problems remain problems that could prevent them from going far in the postseason. Pittsburgh is dealing with struggles of its own. In their 267 loss to Buffalo, the Steelers faltered on both offense and defense, leading frustrated fans at home to call for head coach Mike Tomlin to be fired.

Years ago, these two franchises frequently battled for AFC dominance. Now, they are simply fighting to stay relevant in a weak division. According to DVOA projections, Baltimore still has a slight edge, with a 51.1% chance to win the division compared to Pittsburghs 42.4%. A Steelers victory in Baltimore, however, could flip those odds dramatically.

Based on figures from NFL.com, a Pittsburgh win would give the Steelers a 61% chance of reaching the playoffs, but that number drops to 16% with a loss. For the Ravens, a win would boost their chances to 81%, while a defeat would reduce them to 36%. Both teams have similarly difficult schedules for the remainder of the season. With another meeting set to take place in Pittsburgh in Week 18, the division may ultimately be decided by which team can sweep the season series.

Somebody will end up winning what has arguably been the weakest division in football this year. After Sundays showdown between the two teams tied at the top, the picture should become much clearer.

Other Week 14 Games With Major Playoff Implications

Neither team involved in the Thursday night matchup is currently in a playoff position. While a win wont guarantee a postseason spot, a loss could be extremely damaging with only four games remaining. This contest feels like an unofficial elimination game in the NFC race.

The 651 Cowboys have fought their way back into contention, but their slow start means they have very little margin for error. A loss that drops them back to .500 would be costly. They currently sit ninth in the NFC standings, just barely ahead of the 76 Panthers in tenth.

Seeing the Lions outside the playoff picture in December is surprising, considering their 75 record. Another defeat especially against another wild-card contender would seriously hurt their chances.

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

After opening the season 71, the Colts now find themselves in a position where this game could be critical. They are tied with Jacksonville at 84 atop the division, with Houston close behind at 75. Indianapolis still has a daunting schedule ahead: a trip to Seattle, a home game against San Francisco, another meeting with the Jaguars, and a road game versus Houston. Falling behind Jacksonville before that stretch would not be ideal for the Colts.

Meanwhile, the Jaguars have quietly climbed to four games above .500 and are riding a three-game winning streak. A victory on Sunday would raise their playoff probability to 96%, according to NFL.com.

Chicago at Green Bay

The Bears currently hold the top seed in the NFC. A road win in Green Bay would further strengthen their grip on that position. The 831 Packers are close behind the 93 Bears, and Green Bays earlier tie with Dallas simplifies some of the tiebreaker scenarios something that may benefit Chicago, which already has two divisional losses while the Packers have none.

The teams meet this Sunday and again in Week 16. While a loss wouldnt end Chicagos hopes of winning the division due to the upcoming rematch at home, a win would give the Bears a significant advantage with only four games left to play.

Kansas City vs. Houston

If Kansas City loses, their chances of making the playoffs would fall to just 11%, based on NFL.com projections. A victory would push that figure up to 50%. What once looked like an easy Chiefs win now appears far more challenging, as Houston has found its rhythm.

The Texans defense has been the best in the league recently, and they enter this game on a four-game winning streak. They are still very much in the AFC South fight as well as the wild-card race. A loss for either team would be damaging, but it could be especially harmful for Houston, as a defeat would give Kansas City the head-to-head tiebreaker and leave the Texans two games behind the eventual winner of the ColtsJaguars matchup.

Author: Riley Thompson